The International Monetary Fund (IMF) plans to discuss the implementation timeline for Ethiopia’s new macroeconomic forecasting model with government authorities, as questions remain over the project’s completion following an initial September 2026 target.
Ethiopia has been working with the IMF to overhaul its economic forecasting framework through successive rounds of technical assistance dedicated to the Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM). The government requested the framework in October 2024 to bring greater rigor to its fiscal and macroeconomic projections.
“Since the Technical Assistance team’s initial scoping mission in May 2025, multiple rounds of TA have been provided, and we understand that substantial progress has been made,” an IMF spokesperson told The Reporter. The Fund plans to assess progress alongside authorities and discuss remaining steps, including the timeline for full implementation, the spokesperson added.
The model is intended to replace the Ministry of Finance’s legacy forecasting framework, enhancing the government’s ability to assess how shifts in economic growth, inflation, public finances, monetary conditions, and the external sector interact. The IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development, in collaboration with its Fiscal Affairs Department, launched the initiative with an initial scoping mission in May 2025 to evaluate forecasting capabilities across the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Planning and Development, and the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE). The project roadmap initially envisaged around seven technical assistance missions scheduled roughly two to three months apart.
Source: The Reporter
